舜宇歷史新高 騰訊強勁反彈

雖說斷定調整已結束可能言之尚早，但起碼組合火速化險為夷，五大持股有三隻舜宇(2382)、騰訊(0700)和吉利(0175)反彈接近或超過4%，倒是內房融創(1918)和奧園(3883)稍微落後。

一輪減持后，現金比例增至兩成五，合適水平，接下來看業績行事，今天收市后有舜宇，然後是星期三的騰訊、吉利和奧園。

舜宇今天急勁反彈，現升7.1%至103.3，盤中高位103.8位歷史新高。之前預增中期純利按年升至少120%，看來超過機會甚大。歷史市盈率79倍，野村最新報告17/18/19淨利潤CNY22/33/42億，預期市盈率降至44/29/23倍，不算過分，業績後再評估。

Nomura: Is Sunny cheap/expensive? If you view it as an A-share/non A-share listed company with PEG/P/E valuation, then it is cheap/expensive

Valuation is usually very subjective, but it is also very difficult to argue whether Sunny is cheap or expensive, as its stock price has constantly rerated over the past 10 years. We find that in different SOTP scenarios, Sunny’s TP could be anywhere from HKD145~68 (by using China/global peers’ PEG/P/E ratios). We choose SOTP valuation based on global peer 2018F PEG ratios (0.6/0.5/0.9/0.5 for camera modules/handset lens/vehicle lenses/others), to arrive at our TP of HKD120. We think it is also more objective to use global peers as a reference rather than purely China peers.

Diversification to keep growth momentum: Sunny’s lens business (handset, vehicle and surveillance lenses) and other optical components (drones and potentially 3D sensing) is growing fast still. Thus, we resume coverage on Sunny with a Buy and TP of HKD120, which equals 33x 2018F EPS of HKD3.6 and implies 23% potential upside. The stock currently trades at 27x 2018F EPS.

繼王者榮耀後，騰訊再一次在和政府糾纏後迅速轉危為安，其實投資者可記取這兩次教訓，以後照辦煮碗。化騰哥低調精明，這種監管的事根本不是事。