南薰樓話: 騰訊一騎絕塵舜宇大熱倒灶

2017年8月17日星期四

騰訊一騎絕塵舜宇大熱倒灶

老話説殺頭生意有人做，蝕本生意無人做，以前撈偏門譬如賣鴉片是要冒殺頭風險的，現在騰訊(0700)賣精神鴉片賺得盆滿缽滿，這讓其他挨窮受累的公司情何以堪。木秀于林風必摧之，所以說騰訊現在面對的最大風險肯定是政治風險。

不過這種風險難以量化，而且會是較中長線的，短線而言，肯定會有一波目標價的調升。野村在業績後把騰訊目標價從341調高到380。

Payment and AI likely to become long-term growth drivers
These two businesses will likely remain in incubation for some time as generating profit there is not yet on Tencent’s agenda. However, we think the market opportunities for payment and AI may turn out as big as those for WeChat, which remained a free messaging app with no monetization for almost three years, only to become a key profit driver for the company. Therefore, continued investment in these areas is strategically vital for the future.

舜宇(2382)大熱倒灶，俾豬肉佬搶飲咗頭啖湯，之前湧入舜宇的一部份資金明顯是沖著晉身藍籌的希望來的，股價昨天創下歷史新高，今天不可避免會有沽壓，看跌幅大小補回一點。111.8絕對不會是舜宇的歷史高點，今天如果跌幅比較大（比如接近5%，不敢打包票），反而是給還沒有上車的朋友一個機會。

昨日下午中等注碼買了中國動向(3818)，純粹衝著特別股息去的，還沒時間算算公司的業務價值，待會兒再update。