2018年12月24日 星期一

平安有感

寂寞新股壇,平安舊戰場。兩間餘一卒,荷戟獨彷徨。

朋輩成新鬼,老兵耐苦戰。城頭旗變幻,刀叢覓小利。

2018年12月14日 星期五

買入恆安

今早出擊的對象是恆安(1044),買入略低於組合5%的倉位,均價54.8。

一鼓作氣再而衰三而竭意思很簡單,星期五已經是沽空報告出來第三天,沽壓應該已經開始衰竭。

黔驢技窮是Bonitas竟然出動知情者舉報這一招數。

保駕護航是大股東增持。

其實想一想,費盡心機冒犯法造假之風險只為了收取股息,這個邏輯...... 反正我是不信。

出擊

一鼓作氣再而衰三而竭。

黔驢技窮。

保駕護航。

出擊!!!

2018年12月10日 星期一

Anta's Amber Buy Likely Welcomed By Investors

Best-case scenario for Anta-led (2020) consortium's all-cash EUR4.6 billion buy of Finland's Amer probably a repeat of Fila success. On paper deal makes plenty of sense given Amer's brands highly under-penetrated in China (4.5% of Amber's revenue) thus offering ample room for growth. Also, Anta has solid track record of multi-brand management.

Financially, China's biggest maker of sporting goods has CNY8.9 billion (EUR1.1 billion) of net cash at end-June, will borrow EUR0.8 billion from banks at 2% interest rate (mainland developers would die for such rate, just saying).

On operation front, Anta believes synergies could be achieved for both sourcing and retail distribution, which easy to understand and execute. Anta’s manufacturing know-how and distribution (over 10,000 stores in China) should help cut down Amber's production costs while lifting Amer’s brand awareness in China. Also and perhaps less tangibly, there are some room for imagination given consortium includes Lululemon founder Chip Wilson and omnipresent Tencent (0700), though actualization of any such possible cooperation too early to predict hence unlikely being baked into share prices at present. 

Anta shares plunged 9% September 12 when news of possible Amber bid first surfaced, probably due to fears of fund-raising via equity to fund acquisition. Now that dust has settled, investors may begin to view the deal more favorably.

2018年12月6日 星期四

當心流氓耍流氓

要留意孟晚舟新聞的潛在後續發展,這條新聞可能比較有破壞性。

流氓耍起流氓來是可怕的,尤其這個流氓是全世界最大的流氓。


2018年12月3日 星期一

先沽為敬

既然已經預設立場(候27000稍微減磅),就沒有必要出爾反爾,唯一有點出入的是積極減磅,而不只是稍微

今早減持的股份計有建滔(0148)、吉利(0175)、騰訊(0700)、創維(0751)、信義(0868)、舜宇(2382)和FL二三星國指(7228),減持後現金水平提高到四成以上,於我自己的操作風格算是偏高。不過,畢竟大市反彈不少,騰訊較十月底低位已經上升三成,有糊不食罪大惡極。況且,中美只是休戰而非停戰,就昨日所謂協議亦是中方讓步較多,雖說大丈夫能屈能伸,但是根本分歧根本沒有解決的跡象,實在不覺得有什麼值得太興奮的地方。

減磅後休整休整,謀定而後動。

你巧勁啊

問題並不在於原意、初心是不是好,也不在於某一具體條款對行業內不同公司的影響,而是對於A4治國的擔憂甚或恐懼。 不能自己是個錘子,看到什麼都是釘子。經濟都什麼樣了,還要監管這個規範那個。更要命的是,整頓監管思路太直接太幼稚。哦,把房價弄下來,把教培打掉,然後也不讓玩遊戲,那麼大家都...