重融創輕吉利

空軍投降

做空是投資的高大上大概沒有什麼疑義，這一個多星期卻是空軍的滑鐵盧，由高大上淪為地底泥。不論是做空人民幣還是恒大(3333.HK)，“輸到阿媽都唔認得”大有人在。而恒大的慘痛教訓肯定引發了其他股票一陣既急又猛的平淡倉潮，否則很難解釋吉利(0175.HK)本週四個交易日急升兩成，而融創(1918.HK)最近11個交易日大升28%。

重融創輕吉利

以週五收市價計算，吉利和融創今年至今分別上升91%和105%，充分說明了業績增長和re-rating雙劍合璧的威力。問題來了，是時候下車了嗎？吉利本週急升當然有中金把目標價調到成條街最牛的20推波助瀾，區區覺得升幅有點過了，至少短線如此，因此這個星期頗為積極減持了倉位。除非中期業績大勝預期引發盈利預測進一步調高，否則吉利可能已是15倍2017預測市盈率，當然不是什麼泡沫，但也不是什麼白菜價了。相反，融創即使股價已經翻番，估值仍然便宜，晉級成為組合第一大倉位。

港交所藍燈籠？

港交所(0388.HK)急升過往一直被當成大市即將大勝的先兆，原因很簡單，市升成交必然也升，惠及做獨市生意的港交所。2015年大時代是港交所就曾經在愚人節後的幾個交易日從180爆升到250。問題是，這一邏輯現在還存在嗎？我有些懷疑，甚至覺得週五急升有小小追落後的意味。即使不是藍燈籠，也絕對沒有高追的興趣。

做功課

這個週末做做金隅(2009.HK)和和諧汽車(3836.HK)的功課。

一家之言聽聽無妨

China Focus Strategy for Hong Kong

BOCI

Pay close attention to a potential pre-ex-dividend rally for H-share banks in June

Thanks to large and continued southbound net inflows, the old adage of “sell in May and go away” has not worked out too well in the Hong Kong stock market this year. The Hong Kong stock market has risen significantly in the first five months of this year. For 3Q17, we continue to hold optimistic views on the market as we believe that a systemic crisis in China’s economy and financial system is unlikely before the 19th Party Congress this year and southbound trading volume via mainland-HK stock links should increase YoY in 2017. In June, we recommend investors to pay close attention to a potential pre-ex-dividend rally for H-share banks. We noted that major H-share banks generally outperform the market within two weeks before their ex-dividend dates over the past two years. Many H-share banks will soon go ex-dividend in June and early July this year.

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HK Stock Market Valuations are Still Attractive 

At present, the valuation of the HK stock market remains attractive compared to the A-share and other major global markets. According to Bloomberg consensus, on 26 May 2017:

 HSI traded at 12.6x 2017E P/E and 1.3x 2017E P/B, representing 2% and 20.4% discounts respectively to the average forward P/E and P/B over the past 12 years.
 HSCEI traded at 8.5x 2017E P/E and 1.0x 2017E P/B, representing 21.6% and 42.8% discounts respectively to the average forward P/E and P/B over the past 12 years.

 In our view, the current valuation of the HK stock market remains below its historical average and hence is attractive, even when compared to the levels seen during the previous two global financial crises:

 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). From October to November 2008, the HSI traded at average P/E of 9.9x (within 7.6-12x range) and P/B of 1.3x (within 1.0-1.6x range); and the HSCEI traded at average P/E of 8.7x (within 6.1-11.0x range) and P/B of 1.4x (within 1.0-1.8x range).
 2011 European debt crisis. From September to October 2011, the HSI traded at average P/E of 10x (within 8.7-11.0x range) and P/B of 1.3x (within 1.1-1.4x range); and the HSCEI traded at average P/E of 7.9x (within 6.6-9.0x range) and P/B of 1.3x (within 1.1-1.5x range).

過了有點過了

即使像我這樣的吉利(0175.HK) die-hard 粉絲，對股價最近的升幅也看不過眼，最近一個月升三成，year to date將近九成。去年年底開始建倉吉利的時候大概設想是今年看12，明年15，2019看20，建基於公司2020年實現年銷200萬輛車的目標。

誰知上半年還沒過去，已經14，感覺有點過了，股價現在拋離10天線將近一成五，14天RSI超過80，減持！！！當然，這樣做的風險是股價絕塵而去，下車之後沒有下班車，所以是個技術活。

小時代更勝大時代

距離2015年大時代兩年，恆生指數今年連升五個月，比兩年前高位還差著兩千多點，然而個股超越兩年前高位的比比皆是。股王騰訊(0700.HK)15年高位160，現在270，藍籌新貴吉利汽車(0175.HK)兩年前不到五塊，現在13，充分說明長線持有優質股的著數。

• 今年升浪和兩年前顯著不同的有兩點：大時代是快牛，升幅巨大時間短促，在國家牛市的大背景下個個人來瘋，不理狗屎垃圾一擁而上，風口上豬都吹上天；今年是慢牛，升勢健康得多，飛沙走石的情況很少見。第二，大時代小股當道，格隆匯一吹立即黃袍加身，醜小鴨變天鵝；今年大股萬千寵愛，小股斯人獨憔悴。

• 不時有人將科網當時得令和千禧之交的科網泡沫相提並論，其實錯得不能再錯。現在的科網巨頭是從2001泡沫爆破後一步一腳印靠實實在在的盈利增長脫穎而出的，估值是不便宜但是說是泡沫就大錯而特錯了。

• 大市連升五個月出現調整不足為奇，現在可做適當的風險管理，但是今年高位應該未見，調整吸納不會錯。

• 除咗07、08年全球金融海嘯短暫跌過一陣，今次樓市升浪可以講係由03年沙士最低位連升14年。中間可能好多聰明人沽咗樓，諗住等跌番先至買返，結果......　這和長線持有優質股的道理是一樣。（雅典居3房連車位1100萬轉手）

騎士勇士第三集就快上演，騎士加油！

中金看20

This should be the most bullish call I've seen so far.

《大行報告》中金升吉利(00175.HK)目標價至20元 期待明年淨利潤破百億人幣 2017-06-01 14:13 HKT

中金發表報告表示，吉利汽車(00175.HK)昨股價創歷史新高，該行繼續看好公司中長期的表現，重申予其「推薦」投資評級，並上調目標價33%至20元。 該行指，考慮到吉利5月前三周銷量表現，市場對吉利5月份的銷量預期有所升高，並開始逐步反映至股價上；如果最終吉利的銷量結果顯示受季節性疲弱因素影響較小，那麼市場對公司2017年全年的銷量目標預期有望進一步提升。 中金認為未來吉利在銷量提升下，還有多重利好推動，可以長遠角度樂觀看待吉利的銷量和中長期盈利能力提升，吉利銷量2017年大概率突破100萬輛；而淨利潤也有望在2018年前後突破100億人民幣大關，實現銷量和利潤的「雙破百」。 該行稱，考慮吉利以及領克新車型的陸續推出將持續推動公司平均售價和毛利率在2018年加快增長，上調2018年盈利預期11.7%至118.6億人民幣。

兒童節快樂

六一是大陸的兒童節，身早已不是兒童，心希望能存一絲童真。

處在不惑和知天命之間，逝者如斯夫的感觸愈深愈強烈。上有父母逐漸老去，下有兒女天天成長，夾在中間的我們容顏未老卻也不再年輕。離開校門二三十年的奮鬥，有的同學事業有成家庭美滿，成績平平的當然也不乏人在，年少時的理想夢想狂想漸漸化為了為買車買樓孩子教育而奔波忙碌。花開葉落、四時變遷，由少而壯、由壯而老，不由得會有做了過河卒子只能勉力向前的感慨。

當然，中年也不盡力是危機，中年的我們有了相對豐富的人生閱歷而仍然年富力強，擔起照顧父母養育兒女的擔子之餘也有了一定的資源享受人生。我們這一代生於六七十年代，瓜菜代未必試過但物質生活的貧乏親身經歷，有了比較才懂得珍惜，這是我們的下一輩不會有的資本。

朋友們祝你們六一快樂，希望看到這篇網誌的你們想一想when is the last time you've done something for the first time。拾起童真，去做吧！

Nomura view on 內房

Many investors have been asking why the property sector share price has rebounded in the past two weeks. We believe:

 It was a company-specific rather than sector-wide rally (Fig. 1), with Evergrande +64%, Sunac +21%, Country Garden +20% and Longfor +13%, while others were largely flat vs Hang Seng Index. This is consistent with our previous suggestion to stay defensive on the sector in May but look for specific opportunities, such as Evergrande (Heading in the right direction, 25 April) and Sunac (Unlock the huge and valuable land bank, 17 May)

 It was driven more by positive-biased sentiment and flows than physical market improvement:

We remain cautious on credit and sales growth outlook for the sector, and recommend being selective on stocks. We prefer developers with strong sales momentum, potentially good interim results and cheap valuation. Our top picks include CR Land (1109 HK), Sunac (1918 HK), and CIFI (884 HK).

No chance, at all?

Why is nobody giving Cavs no chance? Why "which will surprise you more, Warriors going 16-0 or Cavs forcing a game 7" even becomes a legitimate debate? This year's playoffs have been dreadful, I'm rooting for 7 games and Cavs to pull out an upset.

If Cavs win, will that be the biggest upset in NAB finals history?

LET'S GO LEBRON, LET'S GO UNCLE DREW, LET'S GO K LOVE, LET GO JR.

踩到狗屎

最近持倉最重的吉利(0175.HK)和融創(1918.HK)你方唱罷我登場，真是懷疑自己踩到狗屎。宜將剩勇追窮寇固然沒錯，但是一鳥在手也不是沒有道理。不過怎樣操作倒是其次，最重要是心態，謙虛謹慎戒驕戒躁、小心翼翼如履薄冰是老生常談，算是給自己提個醒。

五月非但不窮反而挺滋潤，月初及時轉向應記一功。當然五不窮不代表六絕就不會發生，目前以“走走看看”應市，走走是走一部分貨鎖定利潤，看看則是謀定而後動。第一季重倉吉利第二季重倉融創收穫甚豐，顯擺一下請各位看官原諒，接下來要好好做功課迎接六月份和第三季。

兩極分化大股大幅跑贏小股應該是今年港股最重要的一個特征，而這一趨勢中外皆然，在可見將來這一趨勢不會改變那就順勢而行。小就是美明日黃花，此一趨勢和北水南下可能也有一定關係。很多大陸投資者一提到港股第一反應是老千盛行，因此小股可免則免。香港證券監管的袞袞諸公對此會不會感到汗顏？！

Adios PureBOOST 2.0

Retiring my PureBOOST 2.0. I've been wearing them since 2014. Light, super comfortable, almost a slip-on. They've been my all-purpose shoes, taking a walk, doing some light training, shooting drill, taking out the trash whatever the task might be, the PureBOOST handled it well.

Replacing them is PureBOOST 4.0 DPR, which in my opinion is an entirely different iteration of regular PureBOOST 4.0. The regular 4.0 just wasn't my cup of tea (especially the burrito-like fold-over tongue) but the DPR looks simple yet sleek. The cushioning isn't as bouncy as UltraBOOST but it gets the job done. Also, PureBOOST has been mostly a daily wear shoe for me rather than a running shoe, so I'm fine with the low-profile cushioning. As a matter of fact, I actually prefer the balance between cushioning and lightness found in the DPR.

Since BOOST became a thing, I've bought the original Crazylight Boost, then Crazylight Boost 2014 and PureBOOST 2.0 (both summer of 2014). I've later added D Rose 6, Crazy Explosive, Harden Vol. 1 and Crazylight Boost CNY (all basketball), and triple-white UltraBOOST 2.0 and one uncaged UltraBOOST. Damn that's a lot of BOOSTs.

The only regret? Probably I didn't open an overseas trading account to buy Adidas shares.