候27000稍微減磅

距離上一篇（春江水暖）不到兩個星期，市況已進一步轉好。不知不覺，騰訊(0700)已經從10月30日低位反彈兩成五，一些細價股上升幅度更加驚人，例如偉哥力薦的匯聚科技(1729)，不到一個月的時間更是坐火箭般飆升六成幾。人棄我取知易行難，滿街鮮血的時候能夠說服自己放手一搏的又有幾人。

策略上會在挨近27,000稍微減一減磅，「習特會」我自己毫無根據的直覺會是「唔湯唔水」，到時可能成為大市獲利回吐的藉口。

adidas Marquee Boost

These are super clean, super dope, especially the white low-top pair. I'm copping as soon they're out.

The Next adidas Boost Basketball Shoe, The Marquee Boost, Is Coming Soon

莎莎業績還行 但吸引力一般

中午開市追入莎莎(0178)，50,000 @ 3.44，小注試下水溫。

莎莎截止9月底止中期營業額只上升16%至41.47億港元，純利則大升八成五至2.03億元，EPS 6.7港仙，派中期息7港仙（比去年同期3.5港仙增加一倍）。

純利倍升部分原因是期內已終止經營一直處於虧損狀態的台灣地區零售業務，但是即便撇除這一因素，期內來自持續經營業務的溢利仍然較去年同期增長66%至2.04億港元。莎莎是這樣解釋的，“儘管毛利率按年下降至 39.9%，經營槓桿卻因銷售額升幅增長而有所改善，而租金成本及前線員工成本對銷售的佔比均有所下降，帶動本期內的純利率上升 1.8 個百分點。”

由於零售旺季集中在莎莎的下半財年，莎莎下半年盈利通常是上半年的2.5-3.5倍，很粗略算的話莎莎盈利其實是有條件回復到高峰期的年賺8-9億港元的，現市值106億港元意味著12-13倍市盈率，股息率如果假設莎莎將盈利全部用來派息的話有8%（上半年DPS > EPS）。

整體感覺好像還行但是最大的不確定因素是valuation expansion。莎莎最風光的時候市場可以給到20-30倍市盈率，但現在看來再恢復到這麼高的估值幾乎是不可能的了，原因是香港作為購物天堂對大陸遊客的吸引力已經大不如前，市場也逐漸形成共識來港的遊客以消費力計其實是一蟹不如一蟹。

小倉位先持有看看吧。

野村維持中國建材減持評級

野村發表中國水泥行業深度報告，要點如下：

We expect China’s cement demand to shrink continuously in 2019/20F, mainly due to the property sector slowdown, particularly in low-tier cities. However, we see resilient cement prices due to major cement producers’ sturdy collaboration and extended off-peak production. We thus expect the sector’s per tonne profitability (GP/tonne) to stay at historical high levels.

Stock pick thesis: Regional exposure and cash flow tell the differences
We see China cement sector transitioning from growth stocks to value stocks and believe that current valuations are yet to factor in the significant improvement in profitability and free cash flow. Our pecking order is as follows:
CR Cement (1313 HK, Buy): CR Cement (CRC) is a leading regional producer with c.70% shipment in Guangdong/Guangxi. We initiate coverage of CRC as our top pick since we expect the company to benefit from the property sector momentum in Guangdong/Guangxi and potential demand upside driven by the infrastructure projects in Guangdong.
Anhui Conch (914 HK/600585 CH, Buy/Buy): We believe that Conch’s Tshape strategy can help maintain its cement/clinker shipment growth to outpace the sector average. Conch’s cost advantage guarantees long-term competitiveness, in our view. We prefer cheaper Conch – A over Conch – H.
CNBM (3323 HK, Reduce): We recommend avoiding CNBM as we see no significant improvement in its high net gearing and unwieldy financial costs.

重點看一下中國建材(3323)，因為我持有倉位。

野村大幅調高了盈利預測，但是評價仍然是減持，依據如下：

We significantly lift 2018F/19F earnings for China National Building Material (CNBM) and raise our TP by 23% to HKD5.0 as we factor in the contribution from the acquisition of Sinoma (1893 HK, delisted on 23 April 2018). However, we maintain our Reduce rating on the shares since we do not see significant reduction in net debt and financial costs (Fig. 146 and Fig. 147). Our HKD5.0 TP implies c.21% downside to the current share price. We are one of the few brokers with a Reduce rating on the stock.

其實根據野村的預測，中建材2018/19/20的市盈率僅4.8/4.7/4.5倍，而股息率達到3.5%/6.4%/6.6%。

野村對中建材負債的評論：

Cumbersome debt the key problem, resulting in low profitability 
High net gearing and cumbersome financial costs have long been an issue for CNBM, resulting in lower net margin and ROE despite strong cement profit (Fig. 145). Although the company guides to repay CNY15bn in long-term debt each year in 2018-20F, it will not significantly reduce financial costs and hence improve profitability. A more aggressive repayment scheme is needed, in our view.

春江水暖

「靜雞雞」，市況正在慢慢轉好。證據之一是六月中以來一浪低於一浪的走勢終於停止，恆指今年低位可能已見；二是股價開始對壞消息有免疫力。當然，這只是個人觀察，可能屁股指揮腦袋，請各位自行分析判斷。

除了市況觀察外，近來臉書、財經節目之類興末日博士，不是羅家聰，而係Dr. Ng。據介紹，此仁兄之前職業是牙醫，且為資深債券投資者，唱港樓要跌七成，恒生指數要見四位數。上帝要你滅亡，必先令你瘋狂，這個醫生應該可以調轉來看。

下面一段為醫生語不驚人死不休之預測：

我相信，今次納指會跌回二千年科網股爆破的時候、大約千二點才有機會停止！這個數字只會多不會少，但是當然不是一下子跌落去，將會是一個消耗性下跌維持一個幾年的時間。

納指現在7000多點。

順便扯兩句騰訊(0700)。短線遊戲當然是制約因素，但是中長線其實廣告、支付和雲服務增長速度和增長空間仍可以。市場現在當投資收益不是錢，但騰訊的股權投資計金額有市值的一成，這些都是實實在在的投資。在下覺得投資騰訊最差的時間已經過去，現在欠缺的是催化劑。股價回落250給你買的機會應該很低。

Tencent Relief Rally Likely

Tencent's (0700) 3Q results are probably best described as not worse than feared, rather than consensus beating. While a 29.6% on-year rise in net profit to CNY23.33 billion handily smashes already revised-down forecast, it was boosted by a windfall of CNY8.8 billion from investment gains, which the market will likely continue to view as one-off. Non-GAAP earnings rose a more subdued 15.5% to CNY19.71 billion, while revenue grew at its slowest pace in three years.

Overall, there likely to be small relief rally. That's short-term view. Longer term though, Tencent's business trends are turning positive. Firstly, 3Q mobile gaming revenue rose 11% vs 2Q, likely above low-to-mid single-digit percentage sequential growth anticipated by analysts. Ads also show positive momentum, with total ads revenue up 47% on year to 20% of Tencent’s total revenue. Tencent also for the first time revealed its cloud revenue, which more than doubled in 3Q, amounting to CNY6 billion in the first three quarters.

Bears, especially those with short positions, perhaps should exercise caution, as after all Tencent shares have fallen a whopping 43% from its all-time high of HK$476.6 in January. Short-covering could potentially provide fast and furious share-price rally, in the short run.

Bye Bye, Melo

No one should feel sorry for Melo as he's paid the 7th-most cash of any NBA player ever. So, don't feel sorry for him. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about his play. 

Talking heads such as Stephen A saying Melo is being scapegoated obviously either don't watch games closely or don't care about stats (most likely both). Melo is absolutely atrocious on defense. If you ever play competitive basketball, you will understand and appreciate the importance of defense, aka not letting your opponents scoring at will. 

Melo is just really really bad on defense. He tried but he just couldn't. When James Harden is already defensively challenged, having him and Melo sharing the court is just disastrous. And when the other 3 guys have to at least think about covering their mistakes, the whole defensive scheme is compromised. Per ESPN stats, in 294 minutes with Anthony on the floor, the Rockets have been outscored by 63 points. The Rockets have outscored other teams by seven points in the 282 minutes he’s sat on the bench. That tallies up to Houston being 11.1 points per 100 possessions better without Melo on the court (1.9 on offense and a whopping 10.1 on defense.) 

As soon as word came out Anthony is out of H-town, Rockets exploded for 76 first-half points against Indiana, followed up by a convincing victory over Denver, West's 3rd-seated team. I'm by no means saying Melo is responsible for all of Houston's early struggles, and I'm not saying Melo is a lock room cancer either (I simply don't know), what I'm saying is that he's bad at playing basketball, especially on the defensive end, at this stage of his career and in this fast-paced and switching-heavy NBA environment.

Adios, Melo!

鷹美業績遜於預期

鷹美(2368)中期業績無疑令人失望，下午一開盤沽出約三分之一倉位。

儘管營業額按年上升25.5%至14.77億港元，毛利率下降3.7個百分點，由19.6%下跌至15.9%。如撇除去年同期的特殊收益4,710萬港元，上半年淨利下跌8.5%至1.01億港元，淨利率由9.4%下跌至6.8%。 中期息每股14港仙 vs  一年之前的18港仙。

鷹美對於利潤率下降的解釋是，“市場預期極端天氣出現以致對生產禦寒衣服物料需求大增，造成於回顧期內生產禦寒功能性運動服的主要物料成本大幅增加，對本集團的盈利率帶來負面影響。加上工人最低工資及福利不斷提升，進一步增加製造成本，蠶食本集團盈利。”雖然也說得通，但業績整體無疑是低於預期的。

鷹美息佳 靜候業績

如果說熊市有什麼好處，那就是會出現throw the baby out with the bath water的情況，這時候如果你不畏人棄我取，就有機會買到倍升股。

鷹美星期一將會公佈中期業績，只看表面數據，歷史市盈率7倍，股息率9.4%，是的，將近10%。截至3月底的最近四個財政年度，派息穩定增長，從2014財年的4港仙逐年增長至12.5 --> 17 --> 21 --> 30 港仙，2018財年派息比率六成五（EPS 46港仙）。

鷹美上半年盈利高於下半年，因為上半年度（九月結）生產毛利較高的冬季運動服裝。不奢望強勁盈利增長，只要溫和增長已經心滿意足，因為只要有溫和增長，股息率已經超過10%。18財年中期股息18港仙，星期一的中期業績中期股息如果能有個20港仙便收貨，光是中期股息率就已經超過六厘。

當然，鷹美缺點是交投疏落，經過最近一段時間趁跌市收集，目前持有中等倉位鷹美。

回補吉利舜宇

今天補回部分上週五沽出的吉利(0175)和舜宇(2382)，博恆指在補回上週五的上升裂口後，還有進一步反彈空間，上試27,000。

蘋果理論上不管舜宇事，吉利開啟新產品週期，兩隻都是長期愛股。

先沽為敬

雖然星期五開市前預料港股會有比較大的升幅，但是升勢之淩厲還是jaw-dropping， 藍籌裡面自己重倉的騰訊(0700)、吉利(0175)以及舜宇(2382)都在一成左右，三四五三個交易日騰訊飆升20.4%，吉利23.1%，舜宇25.3%。

有胡不食罪大惡極，星期五減持了相當多，將現金水平提高到四成有多。熊市中的反彈往往非常急促而且升幅可觀，讓你誤以為熊市已經結束，等你追進去的時候又套牢。從6月中到現在，市況是明顯的一底低於一底，在這一形態得以確認扭轉之前，沒有必要勇字寫在心口。

再者，特朗普特不靠譜這個花名實至名歸，隨口噏當秘笈是家常便飯，反口覆舌朝令夕改司空見慣，真正信一成都死。

星期五令人目瞪口呆的漲幅肯定有夾空的成分在內。恒生指數裂口高開560點後拾級向上，以全日高位收市，報26,486，升1,070點或4.2%，為近十年來最大單日升幅，成交大增至1,703億港元。

熊市做空看似長空萬里，零舍威水，但是比人夾一夾都會夾死人。其實行行食得鹹魚抵得渴…… 做投資外人看到的是風光，個中辛苦、失意、有時甚至接近絕望卻不足為外人道。

一夜春風 喜大普奔

忽如一夜春風來，千樹萬樹梨花開。

這是外患，內憂方面，《新聞聯播》頭條是習近平主持召開民營企業座談會強調，毫不動搖鼓勵支持引導非公有制經濟發展，支持民營企業發展，並走向更加廣闊舞台。新華社同時發文，【習近平：我國民營經濟只能壯大，不能弱化】。

真心還是假意姑且放在一邊，連番密集表態確確實實回應了市場過去大半年的憂慮。早知如此，何必當初。有投資港股的朋友當然知道國有企業和民營企業之間猶如鴻溝式的估值差異，國企市盈率只有6-8倍，而以騰訊(0700)為代表的民營企業，市場願意給予的估值可以達到30-40倍。個中原因畫公仔唔使畫出腸。近幾年新晉的恒指成分股例如恒安(1044)、碧桂園(2007)、吉利(0175)、舜宇(2382)、申洲(2313)等等有哪一家不是民企。

从宏觀角度看，對民企態度的轉彎，起碼顯示了中國政府內部糾錯機制的存在。不敢說逆轉，但是起碼對舒緩投資者在宏觀層面對於中國經濟的擔憂應該有比較正面的作用。當然，並不是說宏觀經濟和企業盈利前景瞬間得以改善，但是僅僅是投資者信心修復這一塊就能為本來已經非常超賣的股市帶來一波不錯的反彈。

恒指週三週四合共反彈了800多點，今天應該再上一層樓。見底還是只是反彈言之尚早，重倉的吉利騰訊舜宇内房以及最近一段時間收集的華晨(1114)都有比較好的反彈，已部分減持而今天會做進一步減持，因為短線升勢稍顯過急。這樣操作並不是認為反彈三天就玩完了，而是跑一跑短線高沽低買，增加收益。