比亞迪檢討

比亞迪(1211)現在的長處和短板都很明顯，簡而言之是4P中前兩P杠杠的，後兩P不如人意不盡人意。

Product很好，DM-i打正旗號要革燃油車的命，Pricing也很吸引，奈何Promotion和Place不給力。已經有很多人指出比亞迪和造車新勢力最大的差距正正在於營銷。現代社會已經不再是酒香不怕巷子深的年代，產品再好再牛逼，如果不能把產品通過有效的營銷手段讓潛在顧客產生購買的慾望，那就等於事半功倍。理工男不是不好，踏踏實實是好事，但也要插上有效營銷的翅膀才能做到事倍功半。比亞迪的營銷手段落後已經不是被投資者詬病一天兩天的了，老王似乎至今對這一短板缺乏足夠的重視。

對我來說，未來三四個月DM-i車型能否放量至關重要，如果領先的技術和優秀的產品不能轉化為銷售成果進而利潤，就要認真審視是不是要繼續持有極高倉位的比亞迪。

具體而言，可看看花旗對二季度的展望：

Catalysts to watch into 2Q: 

Although BYD does not give 2Q earnings guidance, we expect the following catalysts in 2Q: (1) Strong 2Q NEV sales: We expect 2Q21 BEV NEV shipment at 113k units (+106%/194% QoQ/YoY) without chips shortage according to today’s channel check; (2) Order backlog: We estimate, up to 23rd April, BYD DMI PHEV order-backlog surged to 70k units (end-March was 50k). Furthermore, we believe the recently launched Tang DMI PHEV order-backlog has collected 6k units from the past 4 days—We expect BYD’s DMI PHEV products monthly sales to further ramp up to 5k/10k/20k between Apr-Jun; (3) Sales-mix & ROE: The low margin ICE cars 2Q sales to be further reduced to 50-54k units, from 2Q20’s 59k; (4) NEV credit: By assuming BYD average NEV PV generate 2.6 NEV credits with ASP at Rmb3k, this should yield a potential Rmb3.3bn NEV credit income for BYD in 2021.