野村發表報告表示，重申對吉利汽車(00175.HK)「買入」投資評級，上調目標價，由原來22.75元升至31.3元，此相當預測市盈率16.6倍，以全面反映旗下領克品牌提供盈利貢獻及競爭力。
原文：
Maintain Buy – Geely remains our sector top pick
We raise our 2018F/19F EPS estimates by 7%/14% as we turn even more constructive on Lynk’s product competitiveness ahead of its launch at Guangzhou Auto Show starting on 17 November. By our estimates, Lynk will account for 20% of Geely’s 2019F total sales volumes (Fig. 3) and underpin Geely’s robust 42% EPS CAGR during 2016-19F. We also expect a positive profit alert from Geely in January as its FY17F net profit should jump 79% y-y, driven by robust sales volume growth (Fig. 1) and profit margin expansion.
預計領克可佔吉利2019年總體銷量20%，支持2016-19年每股盈利複合增長達到42%。
Lynk will be competitive against foreign mainstream brands, in our view
We cannot recall any single new model that could garner so much attention at an auto show in China, but this is what we expect at Guangzhou when Geely will likely launch Lynk’s first model, the 01 SUV, for pre-sale. Leveraged on Volvo’s R&D and manufactured in a plant managed by Volvo, Lynk is Geely’s attempt to break into the mainstream market dominated by foreign brands. The likely price range for 01 SUV could be CNY170k-240k, c.15% cheaper than comparable foreign-brand SUV models (Fig. 5) but boasting technology from Volvo (engine, platform) and build-quality matching foreign brands with key components/equipment sourced from global leading parts suppliers (Fig. 4). With these, we firmly believe Lynk will be able to establish a firm footing in the market. We raise Lynk’s 18F/19F sales volumes by 5%/15% to 218k/372k, as we expect a narrower gap to mainstream foreign OEMs. Specifically, we expect 01 SUV’s average monthly sales volume to increase from 10k in 18F to 12.5k in 19F, versus comparable foreign-brand SUVs’ 15k-25k (Fig. 6). Lynk’s 02 (compact SUV) and 03 (sedan) are slated to be launched by mid-18F, further helping profit margins thanks to scale economies and cost savings.
萬眾矚目，領克身兼打入外資品牌支配的主流市場的重任。
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