野村發表中國水泥行業深度報告，要點如下：
We expect China’s cement demand to shrink continuously in 2019/20F,
mainly due to the property sector slowdown, particularly in low-tier cities.
However, we see resilient cement prices due to major cement producers’
sturdy collaboration and extended off-peak production. We thus expect the
sector’s per tonne profitability (GP/tonne) to stay at historical high levels.
Stock pick thesis: Regional exposure and cash flow tell the differences
We see China cement sector transitioning from growth stocks to value stocks
and believe that current valuations are yet to factor in the significant
improvement in profitability and free cash flow. Our pecking order is as follows:
CR Cement (1313 HK, Buy): CR Cement (CRC) is a leading regional
producer with c.70% shipment in Guangdong/Guangxi. We initiate coverage
of CRC as our top pick since we expect the company to benefit from the
property sector momentum in Guangdong/Guangxi and potential demand
upside driven by the infrastructure projects in Guangdong.
Anhui Conch (914 HK/600585 CH, Buy/Buy): We believe that Conch’s Tshape
strategy can help maintain its cement/clinker shipment growth to
outpace the sector average. Conch’s cost advantage guarantees long-term
competitiveness, in our view. We prefer cheaper Conch – A over Conch – H.
CNBM (3323 HK, Reduce): We recommend avoiding CNBM as we see no
significant improvement in its high net gearing and unwieldy financial costs.
重點看一下中國建材(3323)，因為我持有倉位。
野村大幅調高了盈利預測，但是評價仍然是減持，依據如下：
We significantly lift 2018F/19F earnings for China National Building Material
(CNBM) and raise our TP by 23% to HKD5.0 as we factor in the contribution
from the acquisition of Sinoma (1893 HK, delisted on 23 April 2018). However,
we maintain our Reduce rating on the shares since
we do not see significant
reduction in net debt and financial costs (Fig. 146 and Fig. 147). Our HKD5.0
TP implies c.21% downside to the current share price. We are one of the few
brokers with a Reduce rating on the stock.
其實根據野村的預測，中建材2018/19/20的市盈率僅4.8/4.7/4.5倍，而股息率達到3.5%/6.4%/6.6%。
野村對中建材負債的評論：
Cumbersome debt the key problem, resulting in low profitability
High net gearing and cumbersome financial costs have long been an issue for
CNBM, resulting in lower net margin and ROE despite strong cement profit (Fig.
145). Although the company guides to repay CNY15bn in long-term debt each
year in 2018-20F, it will not significantly reduce financial costs and hence improve
profitability. A more aggressive repayment scheme is needed, in our view.
