南薰樓話: 野村看好龍湖

2019年3月26日星期二

野村看好龍湖

按照野村說法，和其他內房比較，龍湖(0960)優勢包括優質土地儲備（64% in Tier 1 and core area in Tier 2 cities）、強勁資產負債表（53% net gearing vs. peers’ 91% in FY18）和強勁經常性盈利增長 (+75% CAGR in 2019- 20, 15% of earnings in 2020).

經常性盈利部分，野村是這樣說的：

Recurring profit to contribute 15% of earnings in 2020
Management guides a recurring income target RMB10bn in 2019 and RMB15bn in 2020, with 53 shopping malls in operation in 2020 (FY18: 29) and 100k rental apartment rooms in 2019 (53k in 2018). It guided further that recurring income will contribute 15% of earnings in 2020 (9% in 2018). Our initial analysis suggests 35% total earnings CAGR in 2019-20F, while management is guiding a conservative 20% CAGR.

野村將龍湖目標價從28.5提高至30。

We raise our 2019-20F EPS by 5%-6% to reflect faster revenue booking, and look for 30% EPS CAGR in 2019-21F. Hence, we lift our NAV-derived TP by 5%, based on a 30% discount (ex 35%) to NAV/share of HK$42.85. The narrower discount is justified given higher EPS growth, stronger than expected recurring profit growth and higher dividend payment commitment.

根據野村預測，龍湖2019/2020/2021年的dividend yield為5.6%/7.1%/9.1% (based on Monday's closing price of HK$25.15)。