Lynk stole the show - Nomura

野村對領克看法，節錄：

All eyes were focused on just one car – Geely’s (175 HK, Buy) new upscale brand Lynk & Co 01 SUV, which was launched for pre-sale at the show. The strong pre-order results and our channel checks at the show have substantiated our positive view on Lynk.

Lynk & Co – A star was born 
We cannot recall any single new model that garnered so much attention at an auto show in China as Lynk 01 did at this year’s Guangzhou auto show (Figs. 1-4). Lynk is Geely’s first attempt to break into the mainstream market currently dominated by foreign brands. Based on our observations, there is a general consensus amongst the participants that Lynk represents a breakthrough for Geely with its technology at least at par with (if not better than) foreign brands, boasting technology from Volvo (engine, platform) and build-quality matching foreign brands (Fig. 5). The pre-sale price range for 01 SUV is CNY170k-240k as we have expected, (ie. c.15% cheaper than comparable foreign-brand SUV models; Fig. 6), although the actual price is not known until 28 November when official sale starts.
領克是吉利打入目前被外國品牌支配的主流市場的第一次嘗試。根據我們觀察，多數意見認為得益於沃爾沃技術（引擎、平台）以及和外國品牌不相上下的質量，領克在技術上至少和外國品牌平起平坐（如果不是更好），這對吉利是一個突破。

The first batch of 6k units (due for delivery by year-end) was met with strong demand when online pre-order commenced on the night of 17 November, with the entire 6k-units sold out within a little over 2 minutes, despite a deposit of CNY5k was required from customers. Admittedly, the deposit can be refunded if customer decides not to go ahead to buy the car after the official price is released on 28 November, but we believe the final price will likely be set at a small discount (say, for example, CNY168.8k for the 170k variant) to keep the customers happy. We also believe that such enthusiastic response will likely stir up positive sentiment amongst other wait-and-see customers, thereby generating healthy pent-up demand for 2018F.

We see two likely challenges for Geely for now: (1) making sure there will be no quality issue; (2) ramping up capacity according to schedule.
目前面臨兩個挑戰：確保沒有質量問題；按計劃提高產能。

Our current assumptions for Lynk 01’s average monthly sales volume are 10k/12.5k in 18F/19F.
野村目前假設領克18/19年的平均每月銷量是10,000/12,500。

Lynk 02 (compact SUV) and 03 (sedan) are slated to be launched by mid-18F, which could further improve overall profit margins thanks to scale economies and cost savings. By our estimates, Lynk will account for 20% of Geely’s 2019F total sales volumes. As such, we firmly believe Lynk will be able to establish a firm footing in the market. We are hopeful that Lynk will not only be a breakthrough for Geely, but could also set an example for other leading Chinese domestic brands.
領克02和03預計2018年中推出，經濟規模和成本節省將會進一步提高整體利潤率。