野村降新城評級

野村將新城(1030)評級由買入調低到中性，目標價12降至7.5。

該行指降級原因主要是更換主席所帶來的不確定性，對較長線公司能否維持高速增長以及土地成本優勢存疑，具體原文如下。

Why the downgrade? 
We downgrade the stock as we see uncertainties from the recent chairman change (see more details: Chairman detained for sexual harassment). While we do not see an immediate negative impact, we now have some concerns whether the company can maintain its high sales growth (+91% CAGR in 2016- 18) and the land cost advantage (landbank cost 21% of sales ASP in 2018) in the longer run under the new Chairman (aged 32). Reputation and trustworthiness have generally played a key role in securing funding (from banks) and new landbank (from local governments), in our view, and the current reputational damage may require some time to repair. The corporate governance concerns may also keep investors at bay for some time in our view.

但野村同時提到不把評級再降一級的原因，指新目標價只相當於3.6X 20年市盈率，股息率高達9.6%。並提到雅居樂(3383)案例，指當時雅居樂的前瞻市盈率最低跌至3.5X。具體原文如下。

Why not Reduce?
The valuation looks undemanding. Our new target price implies 3.6x ‘20 P/E and 9.6% dividend yield, to which we see limited downside. We present two noteworthy points: 1) R&F has the lowest valuation under our coverage and is trading at 3.1x ’20 P/E. Future Land justifies a higher multiple given lower leverage (net gearing 74% vs. R&F’s 184%), higher asset turnover and higher contribution from rental income (15% of profit in ‘20F). 2) We also look at the Agile case in October 2014 when Chairman Mr. Chen was detained (but daily operations of the company were not affected); Agile’s forward P/E fell to 3.5x, the lowest after the news.

We cut TP by 38% with wider NAV discount 
Our new TP HKD7.50 is based on a 60% discount to NAV (previous: 50%) to reflect potential higher funding cost and weaker corporate governance track record. We also lower our NAV by 8% with a higher cost of equity. We keep our EPS forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 3.5x 2020 P/E (peers’ average is 5.1x). Our top picks are CR Land (1109 HK), CIFI (0884 HK) and Shimao (0813 HK).