Maintain Buy; lift TP to HKD34.2
Going from strength to strength
Maintain Buy – Geely remains our sector top pick
We raise our 2017F-19F EPS estimates by 3%-9%, as we turn even more
constructive after Geely attended the Nomura CEO Forum on 30 November.
Key takeaways include: (1) Lynk 01 capacity will expand in 2H18F to meet
strong demand; (2) Lynk's profit margins could match or even exceed those of
the Geely brand upon improved economies of scale; (3) management is
positioning for long-term growth from overseas markets, with Lynk entering
the US in 2019F and Geely having an option to acquire parent interests in
Proton/Lotus when these companies are no longer loss-making.
我自己比較感興趣的是第三點，海外市場的長期增長，領克計劃2019年進入美國市場，以及當Proton/Lotus止血後吉利可以買入母公司的權益。這些是比較長期的目標，但也是吉利(0175)市值進行下一個跨越的動力所在。
另外，在估值方面，一些投資者很容易想當然覺得一隻股票漲了那麼多估值一定就很貴，這是錯得不能再錯的錯覺。
Valuations: stock trades at 13.2x FY19F P/E
After our EPS revisions, we lift our TP to HKD34.2 (from HK31.30), still based
on 16.6x 19F P/E (+1SD above mean; CNY1.79), as 19F will reflect the full
profit contributions from Lynk 01-03 and better capture Lynk’s upside potential.
CRIC出咗11月銷售數據，融創按月增長11%至約490億元
回覆刪除其實是非常不錯的數據，可能有些投資者預期太高了。靜態來看，假設以後都不增長，一年賣5000-6000億樓，權益比七成，淨利潤率10%，每年賺350-420億人民幣，或413-496億港元，取中間數大概450億港元好了，對比現在1500億港元市值3倍多一點市盈率，而且這個估算偏向保守。
刪除