雅居樂初步印象

昨天先試探性買了些雅居樂(3383.HK)，今天看看有冇機會再買大手啲。

公司見分析員表示今年規劃24億人民幣派息，而公司依家市值係250億港錢， 自己計數。 也可以從另外一個方面睇，就係公司今年嘅銷售目標係六百億元， 毛利率超過30%，淨利潤率10-14%。

如果信得過......

當然老細之前係調戲過女秘書，然食色性也。

聊幾句舜宇

• 昨日成交高達七億多，是藍籌瑞聲(2018.HK)的四倍有多，這是非常大的成交量，從技術分析角度看，放量大跌當然是壞信號。這是從短線的角度看。

• 優於預期的業績，加上之前一二月份極佳的出貨量但是股價績後大跌，可能與管理層在昨日的分析員會議上給出較平淡的前景展望有關。但是跟開舜宇(2382.HK)多年的應該會知道，舜宇管理層生意壞時不會灰心好時不會得意忘形（我特別欣賞），因此語調通常平淡（平平淡淡才是真）。

• 舜宇星期一創下的歷史高位HK$59畢竟較2016年年底收市價飆升了七成四，出現獲利回吐也是合情合理。

• 操作而言，雖然長線仍然看好，短線似乎應該暫避淡友的鋒芒，等待比較理想的價位再加倉。

Sunny update

We're not talking about weather of course.

BOCI says: Sunny Optical’s (2382.HK) 2H16 net profit surged 78% YoY to RMB809m, beating consensus by 7%. The company record an allowance for doubt debt of RMB137m in 2H16, which we guess is for Leshi Internet Information and Technology Corp (300104 CH/NR) . If we exclude the impact of this allowance, the adjusted normalised net profit would be RMB912m, beating consensus by 20% and in line with our higher-than-consensus estimate.

Sunny +2.1% at HK$58.60 at pre-open.

Qucik update on 浙江雙雄

Sunny Optical (2382.HK): Robust results, GPM expansion obvious positive, Jan/Feb shipment better than expected. Question now shares +11% Friday and Monday pre-results and up whopping 69% year to date, how much of positives priced in. Analysts' briefing 10:30-11:30, focus likely on shipment targets, margin guidance, vehicles lens/ADAS strategy etc.; shares may have quite some swings today.

Geely Auto (0175.HK): +16% in past 6 sessions and +68% YTD. I have now trimmed holding to 1/3, which now "封盤". Original target was 12 this year, 15 in 2018 and eventually 20 in 2019, based on company's target of selling 2 million cars in 2020. Shares now surpassed 12 less than 3 months into 2017.

It's quite difficult to resist the urge to take profits with both shares rallying nearly 70% year to date. I've done so and so the risk is now on the upside. I would be looking to buy back some shares on retreats and being patient is the key here. On the charts Geely's 10-day RSI is now at 77 and Sunny's at 70. Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

怎麼混的？

不是第一次在這兒吐槽大摩，估計也不會是最後一次。

• 恒生指數 23,568.67 67.11
• 國企指數 10,069.10 26.69
• 上證指數 3,212.76 3.99

« 返回前頁

2017年3月7日 港股直擊 即巿股評

大行對吉利看法分歧 高盛叫買 大摩籲減持

放大圖片

吉利汽車(00175)2月總銷量按年增長約1.67倍，按月則減少約13%，大行最新看法有分歧。

摩根士丹利預期，今年運動型多功能車(SUV)市場競爭激烈，維持吉利汽車(00175)「減持」評級，目標價7.5元，認為吉利估值過高。大摩相信，今年內地乘用車銷售增長將放緩至3%至4%，主要由於去年基數高，以及較多車主提前於去年第四季買車。

大摩又指，由於SUV市場發展迅速，部分合營品牌的SUV已降價，預期未來兩至三年會對本地品牌構成壓力。

惡有惡報？

有線寬頻(1097.HK)盤前跌五成七。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAFbbyzpk-8

重溫經典，為自己即將到來的解約戰鬥做好心理準備。

祝自己好運！！！

蘇州過後？

Sunny Optical (2382.HK)

Last chance to buy before strong results; reiterate top BUY with new TP of HK$70.00

Sunny’s February shipments remained at a high level despite the CNY holiday and market concern over the smartphone inventory issue. Our check suggested still-healthy upstream demand into 2Q17. There is only a 2-day window to buy at this price level ahead of the strong 2016 results announcement and the company’s guidance that will lift the street’s excessively low 2017E earnings forecast. Reiterate top BUY with target price lifted to HK$70.00 as we roll over SOTP valuation to the 2017E and 2018E average.
.
.
.
Consensus is too low. The reasons are the market’s underestimation of the operation leverage of HLS and miss of the 1+1=4 gross profit relationship from single camera to dual camera.

The 1+1=4 formula for dual camera is another reason. As the dual camera has higher manufacturing requirements and sets a high entry barrier for smaller module makers, dual camera ASP is more than 3x that of single camera and has higher gross margin. Our analysis shows unit gross profit for each dual camera can reach around RMB20, vs. c.RMB5 for single camera, which is a 4x relationship.
.
.
.
Last Chance to Buy before Strong Results Some investors have concerns on Sunny Optical’s valuation as the overly low consensus earnings may significantly inflate valuation. After the earnings announcement on 13 March and the company’s guidance to be released at the analyst briefing, we expect the street to revise up earnings significantly. The 2-day window is the last chance to buy at this price due to the market concern on the so-called “smartphone inventory issue” and excessively low consensus.


My take: Sunny at Thursday's close of HK$51.60 trades at 62X trialing P/E, on surface quite expensive, but if BOCI's assertion about consensus being too low right, stock actually not too pricey. BOCI forecasts 2016 earnings to jump 78.7% on-year to CNY1.26 billion, then grow further 56.5%/50.4% in 2017/18 to CNY1.97 billion/CNY2.97 billion, implying forward P/Es at 25X/17X.

Suuny set to report Monday (March 13).

癡人說吉利夢

吉利(0175.HK)二月份賣88,976輛車， 按年增長1.67倍，按月則減少13%。頭兩個月總銷量19萬輛，按年增長1.05倍，佔全年銷量目標100萬部的19%。

相較長城汽車(2333.HK)二月份銷量7.75萬輛， 這已經是吉利的單月销量連續第二个月超越長汽。

即使再怎樣保守，吉利今年超越100萬輛的銷售目標是妥妥的。遠的當然不好說，但照這個勢頭只要發展過程不犯大錯，2020年實現銷售200萬輛的目標看來是大概率的事情。

接着讓我們來做一个極度不科學（或者美其名曰藝術化）的估值想像。如果簡單粗暴用吉利2016年的預測净利潤除以銷量，吉利的單車淨利潤大概為6700港元（請各位看官留意這一數字在2015年為4900港元），假設未來吉利能够把單車利潤提升到8000港幣而銷量達到200萬，那麼吉利每年的盈利水平或許可以達到160億港元（10,000則200億），對應目前大概950億市值。

那麼更藝術化地假設合理市盈率為10-12倍（ 對一家藍籌公司來說不過分吧），取預測盈利的中位數180億，那麼吉利對應的市值應該達到1800億至2160億港元， 或者說相對於現在的股價大概還有上升一倍的空間，而這一目標價可能兩至三年內達到。

請諸位記住此預測臆測成分太重，是藝術多於科學，粗疏不足之處敬請指正。

悠着點

唔驚唔覺已經調整咗兩個星期， 恆指落2%，國企指數連跌7日累挫3.7%。依家要做嘅係唔好做太多嘢，盡量保持耐心， 後發先至往往除笨有精。

策略上應該耐心等強勢股出現調整，同時趁業績期評估前景。舜宇光學(2382.HK) 13號出全年業績，騰訊(0700.HK)和吉利汽車(0175.HK) 22號。

至於調整到幾多，而家似乎人人望緊23,000，但大家都咁望通常一係唔到一係就穿，呢啲參考就算。 以依家市場情緒仍然偏向少少樂觀（純個人感覺）睇，似乎穿嘅機會比較大，所以依家要做嘅都係盡量提高現金水平，藝高膽大甚至可以做少少對沖。

當然可能睇錯， 恆指高位調整五六百點就已經調頭向上。但睇錯唔緊要，到時追過即是。都係嗰句，後發先至往往好過先知先覺，因為眾人皆醉我獨醒好多時候都會變成懶醒。

無樓無高潮

中資狂搶香港地皮不外乎是另一種中國式逻辑，就像某人說過的，这世界上只有兩種邏輯 -- 邏輯和中國式邏輯。

投資界為地王頻出給出種種解釋， 包括人民幣長線貶值、多元資產配置、打破五大地產商壟斷政治任務等等，但這都不能掩蓋兩萬二一呎麵粉價有多瘋狂的事實。據說建成後要賣四萬一呎發展商才有合理利潤。四萬一呎，are you kidding me？

香港地產商放弃放棄鬥癫合情合理， 因為不是做生意就必賺，做地產也不例外。 當年信置(0083.HK)南灣半島麵包比麵粉便宜差點“執笠”就是一個經典案例。但對香港地產商來說，怎樣補充土地儲備是一個問題，尤其是一些過去以貨如輪轉方式賣樓的地產商。 暫時可以受惠中資搶地的似乎只有半地產商港鐵(0066.HK)，因為始終不用面對補充土地儲備的問題。

搶高麵粉價的一個直接後果自然是為本來已經高企的樓價火上燒油，至少短期而言是這樣， 已經有樓的港人自然享受資產升值的好處， 即使只是賬面富貴，冇樓想買樓的則望樓興嘆， 和諧社會難矣。

[轉粵語]

阿爺幾年前已經講過，香港房屋問題處理不當會演化成政治問題， 雖然呢啲“阿媽係女人" 嘅說法放諸四海而皆準， 但又真係一啲都冇講錯。 安居成為奢望，社會點會唔怨氣沖天。“冇地方撲嘢”、“有樓有高潮”嘅金句固然粗鄙，卻背後不是沒有真相支持。

問題係，點樣解決？ 答案係，冇計。雖然這令人洩氣，卻是真相。花旗國印銀紙香港人有say咩？阿爺印銀紙香港人control到咩？ 至於嗰啲話打郊野公園主意就係腦生cancer嘅言論年輕人又肯唔肯花啲功夫諗一諗究竟偏幫緊邊個嘅利益呢。